Is It A Buyers Market? It Depends

Leave a comment

Lisa Sturtevant PhD Bright MLS, Housing Economist

Inventory is climbing, which has been welcome news for prospective homebuyers. However, the inventory picture is very different depending on where you are and the type of home you’re looking for.

According to data from realtor.com, at the end of May 2025, total inventory across the U.S. was at about 90% of the May 2019 level. But a very distinct pattern emerges when you look at inventory by metro area. Inventory levels surpass 2019 levels in southern metros in Florida, Texas, and Arizona as well as in Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest. By contrast, inventory across the Midwest and Northeast, as well as in Southern California, remains below 2019 levels.

Mid-Atlantic inventory remains tight

In the Bright MLS service area, which covers six states and the District of Columbia, there were 42,981 active listings on the market at the end of May 2025. The number of active listings is now 25.1% higher than it was a year ago and inventory has been increasing across the Mid-Atlantic region for 16 consecutive months, as more homes are listed for sale and properties remain on the market longer.

However, despite the rapid rise, inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels in most local markets across the Bright MLS service area. Overall, May 2025 inventory is just 64% of the May 2019 level across Bright’s footprint. In fact, there are just a handful of counties in the region where inventory has surpassed 2019 levels.

The urban area housing markets tend to have more inventory. In both Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., inventory is above pre-pandemic levels. In the close-in suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria, Virginia, inventory has also surpassed what was available to buyers in 2019.

There are many more local markets where inventory is still less than half of what was available in 2019. In most of the Philadelphia suburbs, for example, the number of active listings in May 2025 is less than 50% of May 2019 levels.

So, while more inventory is a welcome change for homebuyers in the marketplace, inventory is still relatively tight across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and sellers do still have the upper hand in the market.

read full Bright MLS article

Why the Data Matters

Leave a comment

Contrary to the negative reports surrounding the market, people continue to move. Not everyone can or wants to wait. Job changes, growing families, downsizing, and other life events often dictate timing more than market trends. That’s why I start with the numbers. Not very exciting, I know but they’re essential. Understanding the data fosters informed decisions and an easier, less stressful path toward your unique real estate goals. I’m here to provide the numbers, break them down, demonstrate how they may affect you and guide you through the best way forward.  DM me any time, and/or book a planning session. 

FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2% in January

Leave a comment
Outside of Federal Housing Finance agency building

March 25, 2025

FHFA House Price Index Up 0.2% in January

U.S. house prices rose 4.8% year over year, from Jan. 2024 to Jan. 2025. For the nine census divisions, monthly home price changes ranged from -0.8% to +1%.

WASHINGTON — U.S. house prices rose 0.2% in January, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 4.8% from January 2024 to January 2025. The previously reported 0.4% price growth in December was revised upward to 0.5%.

Among the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from a -0.8% in the South Atlantic division to +1.0% in the West North Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +2.4% in the West South Central division to +8.2% Middle Atlantic division.

The FHFA HPI is a comprehensive collection of publicly available house price indexes that measure changes in single-family home values based on data that extend back to the mid-1970s from all 50 states and over 400 American cities. It incorporates tens of millions of home sales and offers insights about house price changes at the national, census division, state, metro area, county, ZIP code, and census tract levels. FHFA uses a fully transparent methodology based upon a weighted, repeat-sales statistical technique to analyze house price transaction data.

FHFA releases HPI data and reports quarterly and monthly. The flagship FHFA HPI uses seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Additional indexes use other data, including refinances, mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration, and real property records. All the indexes (including their historic values) and information about future HPI release dates are available on FHFA’s website.

The next HPI report will be released April 29, 2025, and will include monthly data through February of 2025.

© 2025 Florida Realtors®

Jobs Market Still Healthy, but Uncertainty Drives Mortgage Rates Lower

Leave a comment

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com
March 7, 2025

Greater D.C. Area: Weekly Housing Market Update

Monitor the latest market activity in and around the nation’s capital with our experts’ week-by-week data breakdown. 
March 10,  2025 by Lisa Sturtevant, Phd

  • New listing activity rising seasonally in the D.C. region. The number of new listings coming on the market this past week is higher than last week, which is a typical seasonal trend. In the Washington D.C. region, new listings rose by 10.5% compared to last week. Across the overall Bright MLS service area, new listings were up 10.9% week-to-week. Early March tends to be the time of the year when prospective sellers are getting set to list in anticipation of the spring housing market.  
  • Listings are still relatively higher in the Washington D.C. region though it is still too early to tell the extent to which DOGE is impacting homeowners. A total of 2,050 new listings came onto the market across the greater Washington D.C. region last week, which was 20.5% higher than the same week a year ago. Listings were up just 14.3% year-over-year in the broader Bright MLS footprint. If D.C. area homeowners were selling because they were impacted by federal government layoffs or back-to-the office mandates, we will continue to see relatively higher listing activity in the region in the weeks to come. 
  • The Southern Maryland market may be one to watch. In Calvert County and Charles County in Maryland, new listing activity spiked this week. While it’s not possible to attribute this activity to federal government workforce changes, this market is one to watch. About one in five workers living in Calvert and Charles counties is a civilian federal government worker, according to data from the 2023 American Community Survey. In addition, these Southern Maryland communities attracted a lot of homebuying activity during the pandemic, including many workers who were able to work remotely at the time and may now be called back to the office. 
  • Buyers are still out in the Washington D.C. region. There were 1,600 new pending contracts on homes in the D.C. region last week, a 12.1% increase compared to a week ago. This is a stronger week-to-week gain than we see in the broader Bright MLS service area and is a testament to the on-going demand within the area’s housing market. Places with more listing activity—for example, Calvert and Charles counties—saw some of the strongest uptick in new pending contract activity, as buyers took advantage of the increased availability of homes for sale.

FHFA: U.S. House Prices Rose 4.5% in 2024

Leave a comment
For Sale Sign in Front Yard of House - stock photo Close-up of for sale rider on real estate sign post in front yard of house

Getty Images
February 25, 2025

Most states and metro areas saw home price growth last year. Prices increased more in areas with tighter inventory.

WASHINGTON – U.S. house prices rose 4.5% between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI). House prices were up 1.4% compared to the third quarter of 2024. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was up 0.4% from November.

“U.S. house prices grew at a slightly higher rate in the fourth quarter after three straight previous quarters of weaker appreciation,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, deputy director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The price growth accelerated during the quarter as the inventory of homes for sale tightened even further.”

Significant Findings

Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.

  • House prices rose in 49 states between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024. The five states with the highest annual appreciation were 1) Connecticut, 8.3%; 2) New Jersey, 8.3%; 3) Wyoming, 8.3%; 4) Vermont, 8.1%; and 5) Rhode Island, 7.6%. House prices declined in Mississippi by 0.2%.
  • House prices rose in 92 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas over the previous four quarters.  The annual price increase was the greatest in urban Honolulu, HI at 18.7%. The metropolitan area that experienced the most significant price decline was Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL at 6.3%.
  • All nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The Middle Atlantic division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 7.1% increase from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024. The West South Central division recorded the smallest four-quarter appreciation, at 2.3%.

The FHFA HPI is a comprehensive collection of publicly available house price indexes that measure changes in single-family home values based on data that extend back to the mid-1970s from all 50 states and over 400 American cities. It incorporates tens of millions of home sales and offers insights about house price changes at the national, census division, state, metro area, county, ZIP code and census tract levels. FHFA uses a fully transparent methodology based upon a weighted, repeat-sales statistical technique to analyze house price transaction data.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Home Price Growth Reaccelerates in Q4

Leave a comment
realtor selling house to couple

Getty Images

The housing market needs mortgage rates to decrease to help unwind the lock-in effect and thaw the supply of existing homes for sale, Fannie Mae said.

WASHINGTON — Single-family home prices nationally increased 5.8% from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024, an acceleration from the previous quarter’s downwardly revised annual growth rate of 5.4%, according to the latest reading of the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI).

On a quarterly basis, home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in Q4 2024, up from the downwardly revised 1.2% growth rate in Q3 2024. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home prices increased just 0.3% in Q4 2024. The FNM-HPI is a national, repeat-transaction home price index measuring the average, quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the United States, excluding condos.

“Year-over-year home price growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, following back-to-back quarters of deceleration,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “Inventories of existing homes for sale have improved from a year ago but remain historically low, due largely to the so-called ‘lock-in effect.’ Since the beginning of October, mortgage rates have rebounded after bottoming out around 6.1% and are now inching closer to a new psychological barrier, the 7% threshold. The higher mortgage rate environment is not only hurting affordability, but it’s also exacerbating the lock-in effect by further reducing homeowners’ incentive to move.”

Palim continued: “The housing market in 2025 faces a difficult balancing act, with a notable decline in mortgage rates likely needed to help unwind the lock-in effect and thaw the supply of existing homes for sale. However, we believe such a decline would likely jumpstart demand from potential first-time homebuyers currently waiting to purchase, which could lead demand to outpace any improvement in supply, further exacerbating already-high home prices and purchase affordability.”

Methodology: The FNM-HPI is produced by aggregating county-level data to create both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted national indices that are representative of the whole country and designed to serve as indicators of general single-family home price trends. The FNM-HPI is publicly available at the national level as a quarterly series with a start date of Q1 1975 and extending to the most recent quarter, Q4 2024. Fannie Mae publishes the FNM-HPI approximately mid-month during the first month of each new quarter.

Source: Fannie Mae

Fannie Mae: Affordability, Lock-in Remain in 2025

Leave a comment
small wooden house by coin stacks

Getty Images

December 17, 2024

Economists forecast rates to decline modestly, and new home sales to grow in 2025. The Sun Belt, including Florida, will see strong housing activity.

WASHINGTON — Affordability and the so-called “lock-in effect” are expected to keep housing activity subdued in 2025, with existing home sales forecast to move only slightly upward from recent multi-decade lows, according to the December 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The broader economy is expected to remain on solid footing and expand at an above-trend pace through 2026 as it navigates elevated core inflationary pressures and heightened policy uncertainty.

As part of its latest outlook, Fannie Mae’s economists shared five predictions for the housing market in 2025. They expect:

  • Average mortgage rates will decline modestly but remain above 6%, with likely bouts of volatility.
  • Existing homes sales will remain near 30-year lows, but location matters.
  • New home sales will remain a bright spot in the housing market (where they can be built).
  • National home price growth will decelerate.
  • Multifamily housing will remain in a holding pattern.

“From an affordability perspective, we think 2025 will look a lot like 2024, with mortgage rates above 6%, home price growth easing from recent highs but staying positive, and supply remaining below pre-pandemic levels,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “Still, heightened mortgage rate volatility may present opportunities for would-be homebuyers to take advantage of temporary lows, and we may see stretches where housing activity is boosted by lower rates – but, on average, we expect mortgage rates to remain elevated and a hindrance to activity. While we think conditions on a national basis will remain challenging, we’re seeing meaningful regional differences in market conditions, and the homebuying experience – as the adage goes – will continue to be a local one.

For example, in the Sun Belt, where construction has been robust for a few years and homebuilders are targeting first-time homebuyers with some offerings, we expect to see relatively strong housing activity. By comparison, we’re not expecting to see the same in the supply-constrained Northeast. And while we foresee the current affordability crunch hampering activity through our forecast horizon, we expect nominal wage growth will outpace home price growth for the first time in more than a decade in 2025, slowly but surely providing some much-needed relief to potential homebuyers.”

Highlights From the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

Leave a comment

For most home buyers, the purchase of real estate is one of the largest financial transactions they will make. Buyers purchase a home not only for the desire to own a home of their own, but also because of changes in jobs, family situations, and the need for a smaller or larger living area. This annual survey conducted by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® of recent home buyers.

Characteristics of Home Buyers

  • First-time buyers decreased to 24% of the market share (32% last year). This year now marks the lowest share since NAR began collecting the data in 1981.
  • The median first-time buyer age increased to 38 years old this year from 35 last year, while the typical repeat buyer age also increased to 61 years from 58 last year.
  • 62% of recent buyers were married couples, 20% were single females, 8% were single males, and 6% were unmarried couples.
  • 73% of recent buyers did not have a child under the age of 18 in their home. This is the highest share recorded.
  • 17% of home buyers purchased a multigenerational home, for cost savings (36%), to take care of aging parents (25%), because of children or relatives over the age of 18 moving back home (21%, and children over the age of 18 who never left home (20%).
  • 83% of buyers were White/Caucasian, 7% were Black/African-American, 6% were Hispanic/Latino, 4% were Asian/Pacific Islander, and 3% identified as some other race.
  • 88% of recent home buyers identified as heterosexual, 3% as gay or lesbian, 2% as bisexual, 1% prefer to self-describe, and 6% preferred not to answer.
  • 16% of recent home buyers were veterans and 2% were active-duty service members.
  • At 22%, the primary reason for purchasing a home was the desire to own a home of their own. For first-time buyers, this number jumps to 64%.
Line graph: Median Age of Home Buyers, 1981 to 2024
Bar graph: First-time Home Buyers, 1981 to 2024

Characteristics of Homes Purchased

  • 15% of buyers purchased a new home, and 85% of buyers purchased a previously-owned home.
  • Recent buyers who purchased new homes were most often looking to avoid renovations and problems with plumbing or electricity at 42%. Buyers who purchased previously-owned homes considered them a better value at 31%.
  • Detached single-family homes continued to be the most common home type for recent buyers at 75%, followed by townhouses or row houses at 7%.
  • Senior-related housing remained at 19% of buyers over the age of 60 this year. 58% purchased a detached single-family home, and 52% bought in a suburb or subdivision.
  • The median distance between the home that recent buyers purchased and the home they moved from was 20 miles. This is down from the 2022 report of 50 miles but remains elevated from the distance of 15 miles seen from 2018 to 2021.
  • Quality of the neighborhood (59%), convenience to friends and family (45%) and overall home affordability (36%) remained the most important factors to recent home buyers when choosing a neighborhood.
  • Buyers typically purchased a home that was built in 1994. This is a rebound after the last two years, when buyers typically purchased a home built in the 1980s.
  • Overall, buyers expected to live in their homes for a median of 15 years, while 25% said that they were never moving.

The Home Search Process

  • In 2024, the home buying process for many started online, with 43% of buyers indicating that their first step was to look for properties on the internet. Additionally, 21% of buyers reached out to a real estate agent as their initial action.
  • Real estate agents played a crucial role, with 86% of all buyers utilizing their services—the highest of all information sources used.
  • Buyers spent a median of 10 weeks searching for a home in 2024, typically viewing seven homes, and two of those homes were viewed online only.
  • All home buyers used the internet to search for a home. The most valuable content on websites were photos (41%), detailed information property information (39%), and floor plans (31%).
  • 59% of recent buyers reported being very satisfied, and 33% expressed being somewhat satisfied with their recent home buying process.

Home Buying and Real Estate Professionals

  • 88% of home purchases were made through a real estate agent or broker, demonstrating the continued importance of agents in the home buying process. 5% of buyers purchased directly from a builder or builder’s agent, and 5% purchased directly from the previous owner.
  • Home buyers primarily sought help from an agent or broker in finding the right home to purchase (49%) and negotiating the terms of the sale (14%).
  • 40% of buyers found their agent through a friend, neighbor, or relative. This trend was especially pronounced among first-time buyers, where 51% relied on referrals from their personal network.
  • Most buyers only interviewed one agent before making a decision, with 77% of repeat buyers.
  • 88% of home buyers would use their agent again or recommend to others.
Bar graph: Would Buyer Use Real Estate Agent Again or Recommend to Others

Financing the Home Purchase

  • 74% of all buyers financed their home purchase, a decrease from 80% last year. First-time buyers were more likely to finance their purchase at 91%, while only 69% of repeat buyers financed.
  • 26% of home buyers paid cash for their home, an all-time high for all-cash buyers.
  • 49% of recent home buyers used their savings to finance their home purchase, down from 54% last year. 25% of first-time buyers used a gift or loan from a relative or friend for their downpayment, though savings was most common at 69%.
  • 52% of first-time buyers utilized a conventional loan to finance their home, 29% used an FHA loan, and 9% used a VA loan. The share of first-time buyers using an FHA loan has declined from 55% in 2009 to 29% in 2024.
  • Buyers continue to see purchasing a home as a good financial investment. 79% reported believing that a home purchase is a good investment, and among those buyers, 39% said it was better than owning stocks.

Home Sellers and Their Selling Experience

  • The typical age of home seller was 63 this year, the highest ever recorded.”
  • For all sellers, the most commonly cited reason for selling their home was the desire to move closer to friends and family (23%), followed by home was too small (12%), home was too large (11%), and the neighborhood was becoming less desirable (10%).
  • The median number of years a seller owned their home was 10 years, the same as last year. That number was higher than reported from 2000 to 2008, when the tenure in the home was only six years.
  • 36% of sellers traded up and purchased a home that was larger in size than what they previously owned, 30% bought a home that was similar in size, and 32% traded down and purchased a home that was smaller in size.
  • For recently sold homes, the final sales price was a median of 100% of the final listing price. This continues to be the highest recorded median since 2002.
  • For all sellers, time on the market this year was a median of three weeks, one week longer than last year.
  • 68% of sellers were very satisfied with the selling process. 22% were somewhat satisfied.

Home Selling and Real Estate Professionals

  • 66% of recent sellers used an agent that was referred to them or used an agent they had worked with in the past to buy or sell a home.
  • 81% of recent sellers contacted only one agent before finding the right agent they worked with to sell their home.
  • 50% of sellers used the same real estate agent to represent them when purchasing or selling their home. That number jumps to 71% for sellers within 10 miles of their home purchase.
  • Sellers place a high priority on the following three tasks: help market the home to potential buyers (22%), price the home competitively (20%), and sell the home within a specific timeframe (18%).
  • The real estate agent’s reputation remains the most important factor when sellers select an agent to sell their home (35%), and an agent’s trustworthiness and honesty (21%).
  • Most sellers—87%—said that they would definitely (72%) or probably (15%) recommend their agent for future services.

For-Sale-by-Owner (FSBO) Sellers

  • 90% of sellers sold with the assistance of a real estate agent, up from 89% last year, and only 6% were FSBO sales. The share of FSBO sellers was a historical low.
  • For 38% of all FSBO sellers, the main reason to sell via FSBO was because they sold to a relative, friend, or neighbor.
  • Getting the price right (17%), selling within the length of time planned (13%), and understanding and performing the paperwork (10%) were the most difficult steps for FSBO sellers.
  • FSBOs typically sell for less than the selling price of other homes; FSBO homes sold at a median of $380,000 in 2023 (up from 310,000 in 2022), still far lower than the median selling price of all homes, which was $435,000.

Why Now’s Not the Time To Take Your House Off the Market

Leave a comment

Has your house been sitting on the market longer than expected? If so, you’re bound to be frustrated by now. Maybe you’re even thinking it’s time to pull the listing and wait to see what 2025 brings. But what you may not realize is, the decision to hold off could actually cost you. Here’s a look at why staying the course could be the smarter move.

Other Sellers Are Pulling Back. Should You Hold Off Too?

According to recent data from Altos Research, the number of withdrawals is increasing – that means more sellers are opting to pull their listings off the market right now. And this isn’t unusual for this time of the year.

In the housing market, there are seasonal ebbs and flows. Inventory levels typically start to drop off a bit headed into the fall season as some sellers delay their plans until the new year. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, explains:

“. . . we’re seeing a more normal seasonal pattern now with inventory beginning to decline. We’re also seeing more home sellers withdrawing their listings to try again next year. In fact, for every two sales, there is another listing withdrawn from the market.”

But is that a smart move? While it might seem like a good idea to pull your listing too, here’s why that approach may not pay off this year.

Today’s Buyers Are Serious and Ready To Act

The biggest reason to stick with your plan to sell now is that the buyers who are looking at this time of year are serious about making a purchase.

They’ve been sitting on the sidelines for a while waiting for affordability to improve. And now that mortgage rates are down from their recent peak, they’re ready to make their move. Mortgage applications are rising – and that’s a leading indicator that buyers are preparing to jump back in. And since they’ve already put their needs on the back burner for so long, they’re even more eager than buyers usually are at this time of year.

These aren’t window shoppers. They’re highly motivated buyers who want to move fast – and that’s the kind of buyer you want to work with. As Freddie Mac says:

“During the fall months, serious homebuyers are eager to settle in to a new home before the holiday season ramps up and the winter weather begins.”

By keeping your home on the market, you increase the chances of attracting people who are truly ready to make a purchase.

Bottom Line

While some sellers are choosing to take their homes off the market, this really isn’t the best move. With serious buyers eager to purchase, this is a great time to sell your house. Let’s connect to make sure we’ve got a strategy in place to make it happen. 

Local Real Estate Insights: Impact on Home Prices

2 Comments

If you’re wondering what’s going on with home prices lately, you’re definitely not the only one. With so much information out there, it can be hard to figure out your next move.

As a buyer, you might be worried about paying more than you should. And if you’re thinking of selling, you might be concerned about not getting the price you’re aiming for. 

So, here’s a quick breakdown to help clear things up and show you what’s really happening with prices—whether you’re thinking about buying or selling. 

Home Price Growth Is Slowing, but Prices Aren’t Falling Nationally

Throughout the country, home price appreciation is moderating. What that means is, prices are still going up, but they’re not rising as quickly as they were in recent years. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to make the shift from 2023 to 2024 clear:


But rest assured, this doesn’t mean home prices are falling. In fact, all the bars in this graph show price growth. So, while you might hear talk of prices cooling, what that really means is they’re not climbing as fast as they were when they skyrocketed just a few years ago.

What’s Next for Home Prices? It’s All About Supply and Demand 

You might be curious where prices will go from here. The answer depends on supply and demand, and it’s going to vary by local market.

Nationally, the number of homes for sale is going up, but there still aren’t enough of them to meet today’s buyer demand. That’s keeping upward pressure on prices – even though recent inventory growth has caused that home price appreciation to slow. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, said:

“. . . today’s low but quickly improving for-sale inventory has ushered in more market balance than would otherwise be expected . . . This should help home prices maintain a slower pace of growth.” 

And here’s one other thing you may not have considered that could play a role in where prices go from here. Since experts say mortgage rates should continue to decline, it’s likely more buyers will re-enter the market in the months ahead. If demand picks back up, that could make prices climb a bit further.

Why You Should Work with a Local Real Estate Agent 

While national trends give a big-picture view, real estate is always local – especially when it comes to prices. What’s happening in your neighborhood might be different from the national average based on what supply and demand look like in your market. That’s why it’s crucial to get local insights from a knowledgeable real estate agent.

 As your go-to source for everything related to home prices, a local agent can provide the most current data and trends specific to your area.

So, if you’re planning to sell, they can help you price your house accurately. And when you’re ready to buy, they can find the right home that fits your budget and your needs.

Bottom Line

Home prices are still rising, just not as quickly as before. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about what your house is worth, let’s connect so you have the personalized guidance you need.